Finding Solace in the Unknown

Sometimes I wonder what really drives me.  Is it the lack of success? The anticipation of failure?  The anticipation of grandeur?  As a former poker player, it was often the time between playing that was most engaging.  The unknown place that’s between now and what’s next.  Comforting in its solitude and morose in its ubiquity, it was what had not happened yet that was most appealing.

In starting a business, and slowly one that’s becoming what I had envisioned, there are times that frighten.  What if it all really works out?  Then what?  Of course, good problems aside, is there ever a time in an entrepreneurs life where that question is even worth asking?  Is it ethical to ask such a question?  Is it appropriate?  Is hesitant optimism too much of an oxymoron to take seriously?  What if customers don’t like the product?  What if they love the product?  What if it’s all for nothing?  What if it’s all for everything?

But in the end, when approaching such questions, I find myself realizing that it’s the questions that drive us.  It’s the unknown that drive entrepreneurs.  The unknown that compels us to wake up every morning to find out.  And, like the proverbial dog who tries ever so hard to catch his tail, we really wouldn’t know what to do when we catch it.  But, really?  That’s okay.  That’s what it’s all about.

Three Kinds of New Yorkers

I wanted to write a follow up piece to my posting on my Tumblelog titled “There are three kinds of New Yorkers”.   It’s a bit of a tangential post, but I hope you guys don’t mind me sharing.  I loved E.B White’s short summary of the three types of New York’s that she has encountered.  And primarily because of her laudatory praise of the third kind.  The third kind being the people who come here and see New York as a target.  As a place to achieve their dreams.  A place that will allow them to be the person they’ve dreamed of being.

After reading that quote, I’ve considered myself to be part of that third group.  Now thinking back, it was almost out of a process of elimination.  I wasn’t born in NYC (first group), I don’t commute to NYC (second group), so I must be part of the third (with the assumption that the three groups cover all of NYC—impossible, but go with it).  But there’s another reason I put myself into the third group.  It’s because, while I think I can achieve what I’ve set out to achieve much faster and much more efficiently in NYC, it’s that NYC stands as a beacon of hope for so many.  It stands as a light in the darkness of all the troubles that people live with.  And while I generally don’t like to talk in intangibles, the intangibility of hope is often the single biggest economic driver in a person’s success.  It’s that they believe there may be a better tomorrow.

Coming back to NYC from Cambridge, where I spent some time for work,  I noticed an older foreign couple on the bus.  It being NYC, the multicultural capital that it is, I just assumed they were going home.  As we approached the city, coming in from Brooklyn, the woman, who must have been at least 65, actually stood up as the bus was moving to get a better glimpse of the skyline.  She actually had to hold on to two of the seats just to keep her balance.  At one point, I was going to go over and help her because her husband was sleeping, but she soon sat down.   While watching this woman, I saw something I hadn’t seen in a long time.  A look that I had only seen once in cousin’s eyes when he had first moved to NYC from India.  I could see in her eyes that she truly believed things would get better for her.  That maybe she wouldn’t be so unlucky anymore.  That there was a chance.  As Thomas Wolfe said, “One belongs to New York instantly.  One belongs to it as much in five minutes as in five years”.

The Social Media (lack of a) Bubble PT1 : Personal Connections

Umair Haque, a brilliant Economist from London who runs his own shop, Havas Media Lab, recently wrote an article for Harvard Business Review titled “The Social Media Bubble”. He likens what he thinks are “low quality connections” that we encounter in social media to the subprime mortgage market–”linkages that are unlikely to yield meaningful, lasting relationships”.

Now while I generally do agree with Umair’s hypotheses, I do have to disagree with him here.  This is Part 1 of my rebuttal, the second one refuting his argument against social media marketing.

Nominally, you have a lot more relationships — but in reality, few, if any, are actually valuable. Just as currency inflation debases money, so social inflation debases relationships. The very word “relationship” is being cheapened. It used to mean someone you could count on. Today, it means someone you can swap bits with.

Thin relationships are the illusion of real relationships. Real relationships are patterns of mutual investment. I invest in you, you invest in me. Parents, kids, spouses — all are multiple digit investments, of time, money, knowledge, and attention. The “relationships” at the heart of the social bubble aren’t real because they’re not marked by mutual investment . At most, they’re marked by a tiny chunk of information or attention here or there.

I think Umair misses the point of social media.  For simplicity, let’s use Facebook as the standard.  Facebook is effectively a very, very, efficient networking tool.  And by that I mean it is essentially a rolodex that has much more than your name and number listed.  And that’s okay.  Because what Umair doesn’t realize is that for the youth, who meet people everywhere, Facebook allows us to stay in touch with those people who may be of some value in some capacity later on.  Whether it be for a restaurant recommendation in a foreign town, some advice on a new business idea where that “friend” is a domain expert, or simply to find a new apartment. Social Media provides connections and a way to manage those connections without any underlying obligation.

While it is true that most people only have so many relationships, and the majority of their connections consist of acquaintances (I think I remember reading somewhere that a human can only have something like 5 or 6 meaningful relationships based on the time it takes to invest into a meaningful relationship), the point of keeping in touch with those acquaintances can be likened to grabbing a business card at a conference.  You don’t know that you’ll ever need to contact that person, but if you do, or they do you, there’s already some basis of trust installed, even if it’s that you just met them for an hour over drinks.  Furthermore, I would argue that the lack of privacy, which is these days a good talking point, often leads to a deeper trust being built between both parties.  The simple fact that I can, if I want (and I don’t encourage social media stalking lol), follow X person’s digital life through her pictures or her status updates and that X person can follow mine, there is a mutual underlying trust that’s built by the framework of Facebook itself.  I’m allowing that person into my life simply by friending them, and vice versa.  The comfort level of which varies from person to person of course, but as we delve and embrace social media even more, it’s almost a sort of Pavlovian type of conditioning that we encounter in accepting these new types of interactions.  And that’s also okay.

Embracing and accepting these new changes in society is part of progression.  Interactions will be different online, and translating our physical world to the digital world is still a new idea.  But if we don’t accept the natural progression of things, and accept the way the market reacts to these new interactions, then we will force a bubble on ourselves that the market was not ready for.

How Social Media Helped Me Find An Apartment

Looking for an apartment in NYC isn’t easy.  ”No Pets”. Ok, no problem.  ”No smokers”.  Ehh, okay, no problem.  ”No one under the age of 25″.  Slowly becoming a problem.  ”No one who eats in the kitchen, eats meat, sleeps after 12AM, sleeps past 5AM, is okay with 14 roommates, is okay with 5 subways running all day within 10 feet of the windows and can walk up a 15 floor walkup.  It’s good for a workout!”.  Um, yeah.

The permutations and combinations of people’s expectations for roommates are endless.  Lucky you’d be to find an apartment that is being rented out by a compatible roommate, only to find out that the room itself is the size of a closet, requires income to be 100x rent and is in the middle of Long Island

Now the interesting thing here is not that I found an apartment through Facebook, and someone to fill my current share, but rather that the value on both ends is immediate.  Generally speaking, there’s an implied risk involved in finding a place to live, as well as finding someone to live in your place.  On both sides, the uncertainty involved creates a risk that’s mitigated by a deposit; i.e the financial security of the deposit counterbalances the downside that the roommate is a financial flake.

But with the social referral system that is Facebook, things are automatically mitigated.  The implied risk is much lower on both sides.  We assume that if someone is friends with a friend, they would be able to carry their own weight.  This of course can be a dangerous assumption, but is generally true.  And of course, correlation is not causality.  But there is a high correlation there, at least in my personal experience and come July 1st, I guess I’ll find out if I’m right.

Why Entrepreneurs Need To Be A Bit Delusional

Delusion.  Often derided, sometimes embraced, rarely understood. Obviously, delusion has its negative connotations.  The craziness, the unexpected, the misunderstood.  But as an entrepreneur, being delusional, albeit, and maybe oxymoronically, rationally delusional, is as important as any piece of execution.  When the world says no, the entrepreneur must say yes.  As Reid Hoffman put it, “An entrepreneur will jump off a cliff and figure out how to make an airplane on the way down”.

The business world is a hard world.  And trying to start a business is even harder.  The numbers are just simply against you.  The majority of businesses fail, the majority of entrepreneurs fail, and the logical person would never get into either game.  But as any entrepreneur will tell you, it’s all they know.  It’s all that logically makes sense to them.

Entrepreneurs are optimistic animals by trade.   Everyone around will tell them they can’t do it.  And they will always tell themselves they can.  And this singly handedly is the difference between a successful business and an unsuccessful business.  The ability to keep going, to keep hustling and to keep believing when everything and everyone tells you otherwise.  As Henry Ford once said, “If you think you can or cannot, you’re right”.

Why The Microhoo deal is good for startups

 

I wasn’t sure I wanted to get caught up in the hype surrounding Microsoft and Yahoo, because to be honest, I don’t think the DOJ will let the deal go through.  That being said, there is one issue that needs to be addressed.  And that’s why the Microhoo deal will ultimately be better for the startup market, better for startup hubs and better for budding entrepreneurs.

The issue that’s been raised is the sudden drop of one huge player in the acquisition market.  This is true.  With Yahoo gone, and Microsoft making the same number of acquisitions in a year, that’s quite a few companies that go un-bought that would have otherwise cashed in.   But there’s a few misnomers with this assumption.  One is that, relative to Microsoft and Google, Yahoo just doesn’t buy that many small startups.  They’ve made a few big purchases including Blue Lithium and Zimbra, but very few sub $50M deals.  So the relative decrease in acquisitions for small startups really goes unchanged.

As Marc Andreessen pointed out, qualifying a “drop” in acquisitions because one big player is gone is also moderately incorrect because the same argument uses Microsoft, Yahoo and Google as the players.  But there are over 20 big companies that have made legitimate acquisitions in the internet startup game recently.  Marc’s list includes:

  • Akamai
  • Amazon
  • American Greetings
  • AOL
  • CBS
  • Cisco
  • CNet
  • Comcast
  • Digital River
  • Disney
  • eBay
  • Expedia
  • HP
  • IAC
  • Jupiter Media
  • Liberty Media
  • Marchex
  • MercadoLibre
  • Monster
  • Motricity
  • NBC Universal
  • New York Times
  • News Corp
  • Omniture
  • Priceline
  • Publicis
  • Real
  • Sabre
  • Scripps
  • Shutterfly
  • Sony
  • Valueclick
  • Viacom
  • WPP

If we look at this consolidation from an advertising revenue standpoint, there’s no doubt in most people’s minds that ultimately Microsoft and Yahoo should outsource it’s advertising to Google.  Google delivers the best results, has the best metrics and simply has a hold on the market.  Why not outsource it and avoid all costs?  And in turn, startups will reap the benefit as the ad market scales.  As I mentioned in my post regarding the advertising recession, this will only accelerate online CPC advertising.  As long as online advertising stays in effect, you can bet your money that startups will continue to make money.

But my biggest reason as to why this will be have a net positive effect on the startup market, is because, ultimately, whether I’m right or wrong about the actual number of acquisitions not mattering, the perception will probably be there for most entrepreneurs.  But that’s a good thing.  Yes, you need an exit strategy.  But ask any real entreprenuer, they’re not looking to exit.  They’re looking to build a good company.  They’re looking to build a real company.  Flipping is an art that no one has yet mastered, and if you go into a project looking to flip it, you’re gonna come out broke anyways.  I’m confident that this perception of less acquisitions will streamline the entreprenuer and startup market to positive projects and truly innovative people.  I don’t see much wrong in that.

Drinking the Kool-Aid

No, I don’t mean to reference to LSD (although I hear that’s pretty fun), but instead to getting ahead of yourself.  As an entreprenuer, it’s important to be passionate about your idea.  99% of people will doubt you and the only motivator you’ll have is yourself.  That being said, it’s extremely important to be dynamic and to be agile.  And time and time again you hear about entrepreneurs who are so obsessed with their vision that they turn a blind eye to any constructive criticism.  Typically, what you start with as an idea is not what you end up with as a product.  Things change, markets change, customers change.

I’ve personally been in this spot many times.  It can go the other way too, where I get a call from an investor and think I’ve already got funding!  Or I get so ahead of myself to think that my project will cure the world and I’ll be the next Bill Gates.  It’s great to dream.  It’s important to dream.  Fortunately, I have a partner who keeps my feet on the ground so I don’t get stuck in the clouds.  But you need to be realistic, but passionate.  Ambitious, but not myopic.  But, and this may seem counter to my whole post, do what really feels right to you.  Make sure you listen to others, but in the end, follow your gut.

How much equity to give partners or investors?

 

I hear this question pretty often from fellow entrepreneurs.  “How much equity should I give my partner?  He’s asking for too much I think.  I don’t know what to do”.  Well the simple explanation is that the amount of equity you give should directly equal the amount of value that person contributes.  In fact, it should actually be a bit less, so you make a better deal than the company you partner with, or the employee you hire.  Paul Graham calculates it the following way:

 1/(1-n)

Obviously “n” here is the % you give away.  So, for example, if a company wants 50% of your equity, you have to assume that they’re going to double your value as a company. (1/(1-.5) = 2).  But to be truly ahead in the game, you need to give away either

a) less than 50% if you’re assuming they company will only double your value or

b) hope that the company will more than double your value.

In both cases, you’re net ahead so you made a good deal.  Of course, there’s an immense amount of subjectivity involved in these kinds of deals, so it can’t come down to a simple formula, but ultimately, something like this probably works.  And it’s not as simple as a monetary value add.  If you get funding from one of the top firms, while they may only double your value from a monetary standpoint, the subjectivity value add is huge.  Like Graham says, simply saying you got funding from Sequoia will get you in the door in 99% of places.

Figuring out the employee value add is similar, but the formula is actually upside down:

n=(i-1)/i

In this case, i=the total company value after hiring that employee.  So, for example, if you think that by hiring a third partner or employee will increase the total company’s value (in the long run) by 10%, then i=1+.10=1.1:

n=(1.1-1)/1.1

Therefore, n=.091.  What this means is that if you give that employee 9.1% equity, you’re breaking even as a company.  You give away a certain percentage of your stock in exchange for the exact same value add.  So typically, you should give less than 9.1%.  Of course, similar subjectivity comes into play.  If you hire one of the best programmers in the valley when there’s a shortage of good people, you’re probably getting a good deal either way.

This is really just math attributed to a subjective decision.  Ultimately, it’s probably impossible to gauge how much value any one person will add, or how much value any investor will contribute.  But it’s probably not a bad guideline.

Hyperrealism

So I was browsing Deputy Dog and came by “9 artists that will blow your mind”. And seriously, they will. I mean, it’s mindboggling stuff. I actually had to look it up to make sure it was real. Here are a few I particularly enjoyed:

duane hanson [sculptor, 1925 - 1996]

ron mueck [sculptor, 1958 - present]

raphaella spence [painter, 1978 - present]

gottfried helnwein [painter, 1948 - present]

denis peterson [painter, 1944 - present]

Crazy stuff man. My head would probably explode trying to get the detail on these done.

Is Techcrunch down?

It looks as if Techcrunch is down. Stop wasting all the money on hookers and blow Mike. Go and pay your bills!

EDIT: It looks as if Mike paid his bills.

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